National Intelligence Assessment of Security Threats Posed by Global Warming
June 24, 2008
For years, global warming has been considered as an environmental or economic issue. According to a report issued last month, we also need to consider it as a security concern.
As food becomes a strategic commodity and energy resources are disappearing faster than they can be discovered, global warming's role must be added to the calculus of planetary survival.
The National Security Strategy of 2006 stated that the United States now faces new security challenges, including ``environmental destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis. Problems of this scope may overwhelm the capacity of local authorities to respond, and may even overtax national militaries, requiring a larger international response.
These challenges are not traditional national security concerns, such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. But if left unaddressed they can threaten national security.''
Global climate change represents one of the new environmental challenges outlined in the National Security Strategy that poses a threat to our national security. Failing to recognize and plan for the geopolitical challenges of global warming would represent a serious mistake.
Our overall strategy consisted of developing a good understanding of climate science, and supplementing this with state specific information on water scarcity, overall vulnerability to climate change, and populations at risk of sea level rise. In consultation with the Naval Postgraduate School, we analyzed this material to assess the capability of specific nation-states to cope with the effects of climate change. We did not evaluate the science of climate change per se; nor did we independently analyze what the underlying drivers of climate change are or to what degree climate change will occur.
We remained mindful of what the effects of future climate change would mean for US national security. We used a broad definition for national security. We first considered if the effects would directly impact the US homeland, a US economic partner, or a US ally.
We also focused on the potential for humanitarian disaster, such that the response would consume US resources. We then considered if the result would degrade or enhance one of the elements of national power (Geopolitical, Military, Economic, or Social Cohesion), and if the degradation or enhancement, even if temporary, would be significant. In the end, we reported on key effects that we judged would meet this threshold.
The NIA focuses on the implications of global climate change for US national security interests by 2030. In the study, we assume that the climate will change as forecast by the IPCC.
