Dark Green PR:

National Intelligence Assessment of Security Threats Posed by Global Warming

June 24, 2008

For years, global warming has been considered as an environmental or economic issue. According to a report issued last month, we also need to consider it as a security concern.

As food becomes a strategic commodity and energy resources are disappearing faster than they can be discovered, global warming's role must be added to the calculus of planetary survival.

The National Security Strategy of 2006 stated that the United States now faces new security challenges, including ``environmental destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis. Problems of this scope may overwhelm the capacity of local authorities to respond, and may even overtax national militaries, requiring a larger international response.

These challenges are not traditional national security concerns, such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. But if left unaddressed they can threaten national security.''

Global climate change represents one of the new environmental challenges outlined in the National Security Strategy that poses a threat to our national security. Failing to recognize and plan for the geopolitical challenges of global warming would represent a serious mistake.

Our overall strategy consisted of developing a good understanding of climate science, and supplementing this with state specific information on water scarcity, overall vulnerability to climate change, and populations at risk of sea level rise. In consultation with the Naval Postgraduate School, we analyzed this material to assess the capability of specific nation-states to cope with the effects of climate change. We did not evaluate the science of climate change per se; nor did we independently analyze what the underlying drivers of climate change are or to what degree climate change will occur.

We remained mindful of what the effects of future climate change would mean for US national security. We used a broad definition for national security. We first considered if the effects would directly impact the US homeland, a US economic partner, or a US ally.

We also focused on the potential for humanitarian disaster, such that the response would consume US resources. We then considered if the result would degrade or enhance one of the elements of national power (Geopolitical, Military, Economic, or Social Cohesion), and if the degradation or enhancement, even if temporary, would be significant. In the end, we reported on key effects that we judged would meet this threshold.

The NIA focuses on the implications of global climate change for US national security interests by 2030. In the study, we assume that the climate will change as forecast by the IPCC.

China takes extraordinary efforts to reduce pollution

As China prepares for the Olympic Games, it would do well to study the extraordinary means being used to clean the air in Beijing before the world's athletes arrive. Environmentalists everywhere will be watching to see how effective China's efforts are. Consider these comments from a recent issue of the Asia Times:

The Beijing Olympics is estimated to be the costliest in the long history of the Games - the city has already spent 10 times the US$4 billion that Athens did on infrastructure for the 2004 Games. Officials speak of a "once in a lifetime opportunity'' for China to showcase its modernized capital and its cultural and economic advances. In Beijing, the ascent of modern China is symbolically reflected in the seemingly overnight rise of brand-new and thoroughly futuristic buildings, such as the "bird's nest" national stadium and the "water cube" indoor swimming center, that aim to place the city in the ranks of the world's avant-garde architectural capitals.

Nearly half of respondents in a recent Pew Foundation survey, said their primary source of news and information is the Internet, an increase from 40% last year. Younger adults were most likely to name the Internet as their top source - 55% of those 18 to 29 get most of their news online. Only seven percent get their news from a newspaper. It’s a digital world. Will we ultimately save paper and fossil fuels because of the Internet?

DarkGreenPR

An introduction to skills and tools needed to practice public relations online. This course is specifically designed for someone working in a non-profit or government agency, but most of the ideas are also applicable in corporate settings. We will focus on a type of advocacy journalism used by non-profits such as the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, Physicians without Borders, and the United Nations -- as well as agencies such as the EPA, CDC, and NASA.